On this day 40 years ago. What if…..? Part 1

 40 years ago today, was Saturday 16 August 1986.  Looking back, in my alternate history it’s the day my alternate historians have labelled the start of World War Three.  But in many ways though, it’s really just one of many culmination points.  WW3 didn’t just happen, a switch wasn’t just flicked and we’re off.  It was more like a rolling series of incidents that when looked back upon seem to led inextricably to war.  At the time through, perhaps not so much.  Let's have a look at what might of happened in this first part on my alternate history.

What if . . . . Mikhail Gorbachev never became General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

What if . . . . In September 1984, Mikhail Gorbachev as chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee is heading back to Moscow after a trip to Sofia, Bulgaria, with his his wife, staffers and other Soviet dignitaries.  Suddenly there is an explosion and the plane crashes to the ground in Ukraine.  Ironically, the military and state security delegates had been meant to fly back with Gorbachev were held up in meetings with their Bulgarian counterparts and were unable to make the flight.

What if . . . . In the aftermath of the tragedy, KGB and the Bulgarian DS (Secret Police) quickly arrest 2 Bulgarian dissidents and a Polish émigré who had been working at the Vrazhdebna airport and are charged with somehow managing to smuggle an explosive device on to Gorbachev’s flight.

What if . . . . In late October 1984, the Soviet Minister of Foreign Affairs provides the world’s media with (grainy) photographic evidence of the Pole and one of the Bulgarian dissidents meeting with a Finnish diplomat in Sofia.  The Minister claims the “diplomat” is actually from Supo, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service.

What if . . . . The Kremlin actively blame the Government of Finland and the Polish Solidarity union movement for the death of their dear friend, Comrade Gorbachev and the other Soviet delegates.

What if . . . . Early November 1984 the Soviet Politburo demands that the “Pro-NATO, Nazi Government in Helsinki” immediately resign and the new elections are held, supervised by officials of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.  They also demand that all Supo staff be suspended pending investigation and that the KGB be allowed to carry out that investigation.  The Kremlin also announces that all Finnish-Soviet military cooperation, contracts, trade and services will be put on hold until Finland has complied with the Soviet requests.

What if . . . . At the same time, the Soviet leadership demand the Polish Government immediately disband Solidarity and arrest Lech Walesa and the rest his hated activists.  If this is not done post haste by the Poles, the Soviet army will become involved.

What if . . . . The Finns deny any involvement in the tragedy and reject entirely all Soviet demands.  The Finnish Prime Minister calls for an independent UN led investigation into the incident and pledges complete transparency with such an inquiry.

 What if . . . . Mid November 1984, the Polish Government stumble into action and attempt to crush Solidarity once and for all.  Thousands are arrested over the next few weeks, but not Lech Walesa or any of the union’s key members who have all gone underground.  Massive strikes start to roll across Poland and the country’s economy rapidly begins to grind to a halt.  In a bid to save his own government and stay in power, Wojciech Jaruzelski, Poland’s Chairman of the Council of State invites the KGB to assist Poland’s SB (Security Service) in finding and arresting Solidarity’s leadership.

What if . . . . From November 1984 onwards, Finnish businesses within the Soviet Union begin to be systematically boycotted, vandalised and even fire bombed. Owners are attacked and arrested as “Agents of the West”.  KGB Border troops start making crossing into Finland increasingly difficult short of closing the actual border.

What if . . . . In the lead up to Christmas 1984 on at least two occasions, Finnish citizens, trying to return from the Soviet Union to Finland are shot attempting to cross the border. 

What if . . . . On New Years Day 1985, the Soviet Embassy in Helsinki is surrounded by massed protests which appear to be settling in for a long stay.  Several other Soviet related entities in Helsinki, such as the Soviet Institute and the HQ of the Finland-Soviet Society are also closed due to protests.  The Helsinki Government calls for calm.

What if . . . . at midnight on 12 January 1985 shots appear to be fired into crowd from the Soviet Embassy which had remained effectively under siege.  While the crowd disperses from around the Embassy the Soviet Institute and the Finland-Soviet Society’s premises are extensively damaged by fire.

What if . . . . on 13 January 1985, the Finnish Government recalls its Ambassador from Moscow.  The families  of diplomatic staff also leave the Soviet capital while those Finnish staff that remain prepare to close the Embassy.  Meanwhile the Kremlin declares all Finnish embassy staff to be persona non-grata and gives them 48hrs to leave the country.

What if . . . . on 16 January 1985 shots are exchanged between KGB and Finnish border guards.  Both governments announce the next day that all border crossings between Finland and the Soviet Union closed.  In response to the Kremlin’s diplomatic decisions the Finnish Government requests all Soviet Embassy staff and associates leave the country immediately. 

What if . . . . Early February 1985 during a clear night, a Soviet Baltic Fleet Kotlin-class Destroyer “Spokoyny” collides with and sinks a Finnish Navy Turunmaa-class Corvette “Karjala” in international waters.  27 Finnish crew members are lost and the Spokoyny does not render assistance.  Swedish and Finnish Navy assets manage to rescue the surviving crew.  The next morning  Soviet fighters from the PVO Baltic Air Defgnce District shot down a Finnish Air Force DKF/35FS Draken fighter which they said and flown into Soviet Airspace and “locked-up” a civilian Aeroflot airliner preparing to land in St Petersburg.  Interestingly the Draken wreckage was found by the Police near Vaalimaa, Finland, several kilometres within Finnish border.

What if . . . . Mid February, frustrated by the lack of progress by the KGB and SB to arrest Solidarity’s leadership, Moscow announces the activation of the Soviet Northern Group of Forces.  The annoucement states that this is being done “to help our fraternal Polish brothers deal with these CIA funded terrorists” and to finally stop the nation-wide industrial action.

What if . . . . On the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985, Yegor Ligachev is elected General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.  Previously Secretary for Ideology, Chernenko was thought to be somewhat of an ally of Gorbachev.  Now as Chairman he retains Andrei Gromyko as Foreign Minister, Dmitry Ustinov as Defence Minister, Viktor Chebrikov as KGB Chairman and Vitaly Fedorchik as Interior Minister.  All well-known anti-Western conservatives.

What if . . . . In May 1985 the new leadership team of the Kremlin, know in the West as the “Triumvirate of Five” announce that their patience with the pro-Western Nazi Government in Helsinki is running out.  In addition to the original demands, Moscow now demands that under the terms of the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, Finland now must also submit to KGB official investigating every Government Department and Agency to root all anti-Soviet pro-Western agents in every Finnish Government department and agency.  They also demand that, the Soviet Armed Forces undertake a similar investigation in the Finnish Army, Navy and Air Force for the mutual benefit of Finland and the Soviet Union.  Soviet “advisors” must be present beside all Finish military leadership positions.  Finally, huge financial and territorial reparations similar in scope to those paid after the end of the Second World War are called for.

 What if . . . . Once again Finns deny any involvement in the tragedy and again reject all Soviet statements as baseless.  In a televised speech, the Finnish President states that Moscow, for some reason that only they can know, seem intent on punishing Finland and seek to destroy the Finns national sovereignty – something that the Soviet Union had committed to uphold since 1945.  He reiterates Finland’s neutrality and desire to live in peace with the neighbour and until recently, Soviet friends.  He states that Finland never would and never will initiate offensive action against another country but will actively defend every inch of it’s territory.  At the end of his speech The Finnish President mobilises the reserves of the Defence Forces and announces  for an independent UN led investigation into the incident and pledges complete transparency with such an inquiry.

That's it for Part 1.  To be continued...

Thanks for looking

Richard